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Thursday, October 29, 2009

Contrarian Spurrious Correlation of the Day

Murders and suicides seem to be negatively correlated according to shock-jock economists at freakonomics. Really? It seems Levitt should be able to look at this and find easy econometric techniques that would rule out any causal relationship. Right off the bat, it seems that higher suicides in Japan come from the fact that life insurance covers suicide. Problem is, he would have start once again caring more about doing real work and less about shocking the world for fun and profit.

Salience and Taxes

Are taxes distortionary when they're higher, or just when we think about them more. This paper by Amy Finkelstein of MIT (HT: Ian Ayres) seems to suggest that it's not the rate, but the "salience" (i.e. how much we think about taxes) that drive us crazy. It explains that using irrational numbers to calculate taxes might keep us from getting to wrapped around the axle over them. This might explain why small business owners are more crazed about taxes than others since they have to file and pay taxes using quarterly estimated tax forms instead of filing once at the end of the year. This year I had some weird "additional tax" thrown on by the state of VA (which has a really complicated filing) and had to spend over a month of phone calls and correspondence trying to get an explanation of what was going on with it. For some reason they claimed that I was supposed to have been filing estimated tax forms because the withholding was too low, which is nuts.
Anyway, I don't mind taxes. I think if I knew what I was paying and knew what I was left with at the end, and had to think less about "this part goes to tax" I probably wouldn't mind the taxes so much, and it wouldn't mess with my consumption choices as much. This is one thing that's always puzzled me about sales taxes here in the US. Why can't they just be included in the price? Why does something priced at a dollar have to come out to $1.06 or something?
This is also probably why we don't think too much about tariffs on imports. We never see how it impacts the prices, so we almost just assume that we're not really "paying" any of the burden (which of course is patently false). This might mean that the consumption distortions from trade restrictions are not as high, but it might mean that the production distortions are even higher.

Green Jobs are More than Broken windows

A number of bloggers (see here or here or here) in the econoblogoshpere have been relating green jobs to the parable of the broken window, by Frederic Bastiat:
Have you ever witnessed the anger of the good shopkeeper, James Goodfellow, when his careless son happened to break a pane of glass? If you have been present at such a scene, you will most assuredly bear witness to the fact, that every one of the spectators, were there even thirty of them, by common consent apparently, offered the unfortunate owner this invariable consolation—"It is an ill wind that blows nobody good. Everybody must live, and what would become of the glaziers if panes of glass were never broken?"
Now, this form of condolence contains an entire theory, which it will be well to show up in this simple case, seeing that it is precisely the same as that which, unhappily, regulates the greater part of our economical institutions.
Suppose it cost six francs to repair the damage, and you say that the accident brings six francs to the glazier's trade—that it encourages that trade to the amount of six francs—I grant it; I have not a word to say against it; you reason justly. The glazier comes, performs his task, receives his six francs, rubs his hands, and, in his heart, blesses the careless child. All this is that which is seen.
But if, on the other hand, you come to the conclusion, as is too often the case, that it is a good thing to break windows, that it causes money to circulate, and that the encouragement of industry in general will be the result of it, you will oblige me to call out, "Stop there! Your theory is confined to that which is seen; it takes no account of that which is not seen."
It is not seen that as our shopkeeper has spent six francs upon one thing, he cannot spend them upon another. It is not seen that if he had not had a window to replace, he would, perhaps, have replaced his old shoes, or added another book to his library. In short, he would have employed his six francs in some way, which this accident has prevented.

It seems that the comparison of using stimulus dollars for green investments to broken windows is akin to making a type III error: giving the right answer to the wrong question. No, green investments by the public sector will not increase the long-run number of jobs, and they may have some unintended consequences if future harm is not priced with a tax or an auction. However, short-term public sector jobs will reduce the pain of the current recession by reducing overall employment in the short term. Then the question is what the best thing to do is, i.e. "are green jobs better than the next best alternative for public funds?" To many the answer is "yes." Investments made now to clean up the environment and improve our energy infrastructure will do a lot to increase welfare even if that welfare is not well measured by the metrics of GDP and employment. The "broken windows" analogy also frames the debate in a misleading way. If the analogy is apt, then it must be the case that the "windows" are already "broken" and the cleanup investments are just paying the tab for the vandalism of past generations.




Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Split or Steal

Lesson: Don't trust anyone who's been stabbed in the back before (especially if you're the one who did it).


Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Why 3d Graphs are usually misleading

Just because you can do it in Excel doesn't mean it's the right way to do it. Below, the author has made a graph of the number of Starbucks over time. The height of the cylindrical columns is increasing, but so is the width, making it seem (visually) as if the increase has been all the more gruesome.


Sunday, October 18, 2009

Will and Krugman

Was fun to watch George Will & Paul Krugman bristle while trying not to interrupt the other on ABC this morning. Will was looking down and tapping his fingers nervously at Krugman, then Krugman looked like he was about to rip of his own beard while Will decried the possibility that the Chinese would own our debt. PK's argument was that that's not how they were going to pay for it. The bigger question is, if the Chinese buy US bonds to finance health care, for whom is that worse in the long run? If inflation shoots up and the dollar crashes (like GW himself has predicted) this would clearly ruin the Chinese!

Friday, October 16, 2009

Should OPEC be Compensated?

Economically, there is no argument for giving oil exporters a handout to compensate for our ability to reduce our own demand, thus driving down the price. Remember, they don't give us a kickback for all of their supply-reducing behavior that drives up the price. But, there might be some political reasons to make such a side-payment.

Carbon Tariffs

From Matt Yglesias a few days ago:
The EU, Canada, and Japan are in the aggregate much more significant trade
partners than China/Mexico/Brazil. And the case for them charging us carbon
tariffs seems about as good as the case for us charging the Chinese.
I think we're missing the bigger issue: Why a carbon tariff? Why not just a tax on carbon content for domestically and foreign produced goods? Why give domestic producers a "carbon subsidy?"

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Sad Commentary

This post is not related to VMI per se, just a small part of the article revealing a sad fact about society:
Last year, the U.S. Justice Department began investigating whether VMI's environment is especially hostile to women. Allegations of sexual assault have become a fact of VMI life, occurring about once a year, typical for a school of this size, according to college officials. The first case to result in a criminal charge ended Tuesday.

In that case, a female cadet alleged that Stephen J. Lloyd, then a senior from Mason Neck, Va., pulled her into a storage room the night of March 27 and raped her. Lloyd no longer attends VMI. On Tuesday, he entered an Alford plea, which means he did not admit guilt but acknowledged that there is enough evidence to convict him. The plea is tantamount to a conviction of misdemeanor sexual battery.

The sentence: a year in jail and a $2,500 fine, suspended.

That means they guy could have easily been convicted, but instead got a suspended sentence, meaning he will not serve a day for rape. Probably happens all the time all across the country, and that is a sad commentary on our society.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Milestones

The dow closed over 10,000 today. What does it mean? Nothing, really, but maybe it helps psychologically.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Lurking Variables and Statistical Literacy

People are squealing about pork and the payrolls for federal employees. Fact: Federal employees make more on average than private-sector employees. Fact: They are not overpaid.
Economix explains why:
In 2008, only 14 percent of federal workers were on part-time schedules, compared to 26 percent in the private sector. Federal workers were far older on average: 55 percent were between the ages of 45 and 64, compared to 36 percent of private-sector workers. Furthermore, 45 percent of federal workers held a college degree or higher educational credential, compared to 29 percent of private-sector workers.
and
analysis of the impact of individual education and experience on earnings in the United States by the Harvard economist George Borjas showed that federal employees are paid considerably less than comparable private workers at the top end.
Basically, people looking at the simple averages are not accounting for several important ("lurking") variables that more than explain the average differentials between federal employees and the average private-sector employee.  Andrew Gelman calls this a lack of "statistical literacy"; some call it "lying with statistics". These statistical liars include Chris Edwards at Cato (who by the way should probably know better but is advancing a deliberate agenda), The Free Enterprise Nation, Ilana Mercer of World Net Daily, and Jeff Jacoby of The Boston Globe.




Monday, October 12, 2009

The Prize

The prize in economics went to Ostrom and Williamson for institutional economics.
“In reading [Professor Ostrom's and Williamson's] work, you are
impressed that economics is not really fundamentally about markets, but
about resource allocation and distribution problems
. Markets appear
because they operate effectively to handle a subset of these resource allocation
challenges.
” - Michael Spence, senior fellow, the Hoover Institution.

A timely reminder to those who are following the current crisis.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Protons, Prostate Cancer, and Bad Incentives in Health Care

Here, and here. If you have 3 options of equal impact, one that is free, one that is $50,000, and one that is $100,000, why is it that our current system picks the third one? Answer: it's hard to convince most people that more health care is not equivalent to better health care. Most people think "proton radiation therapy" sounds like it will do more good than "wait and watch." It doesn't.
I'm still puzzled by the blind faith we put in doctors when it comes to their motives in recommending treatment. Doctors, like mechanics, have an incentive to "run up the bill" even to the point of making s--- up or recommending treatments (repairs) that may or may not be necessary. We should WANT a bureaucrat that knows something about the effectiveness of treatments between us and our doctors, whether it's a government bureaucrat or a private sector one! Problem now is that the private sector bureaucrat has perverse incentives, too. A little regulation in these cases (or a public provider) could go a long way.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Thursday, October 8, 2009

The Downside of a Global Supply Chain

Mmmmm beef parts. Still damn tasty.
Ground beef is usually not simply a chunk of meat run through a grinder. Instead, records and interviews show, a single portion of hamburger meat is often an amalgam of various grades of meat from different parts of cows and even from different slaughterhouses.... The frozen hamburgers made by the food giant Cargill, were labeled “American Chef’s Selection Angus Beef Patties.” Yet confidential grinding logs and other Cargill records show that the hamburgers were made from a mix of slaughterhouse trimmings and a mash-like product derived from scraps that were ground together at a plant in Wisconsin. The ingredients came from slaughterhouses in Nebraska, Texas and Uruguay, and from a South Dakota company... Those low-grade ingredients are cut from areas of the cow that are more likely to have had contact with feces, which carries E. coli, industry research shows. Yet Cargill, like most meat companies, relies on its suppliers to check for the bacteria and does its own testing only after the ingredients are ground together.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Order Matters

Most polls have health care reform in its currently proposed form at about 43% for/45% against. Fox News has it at 35% for/49% against. Something's fishy, but the sampling was fine and so was the overall wording of the question. It was the questions that preceded the health care question that may have biased the attitudes of the respondents. See more at fivethirtyeight.com

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Chessboxing

Here. Maybe my students could think of a joke relating to a full-contact statistics exam.

Saturday, October 3, 2009

"Locavorism" and the Environment

"Buying local" is not necessarily buying green:
...lamb raised on New Zealand’s clover-choked pastures and shipped 11,000 miles by boat to Britain produced 1,520 pounds of carbon dioxide emissions per ton while British lamb produced 6,280 pounds of carbon dioxide per ton, in part because poorer British pastures force farmers to use feed. In other words, it is four times more energy-efficient for Londoners to buy lamb imported from the other side of the world than to buy it from a producer in their backyard.
Nor is knowing the producer necessarily good for the community:
Historically, such personalized economic transactions were the norm, but they were inherently fraught with risk and tension. In colonial America — a place I’ve studied in some depth — all markets were initially driven by face-to-face interaction. It should come as no surprise that things could get, well, personal. Markets were intensely competitive and exclusive. Everyone knew everyone. And that was often the problem. The court records of colonial New England are replete with personal market transactions gone awry.
Food for thought, so to speak. Trade is good.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Bayes' Rule and Dick Cheney's One Percent Doctrine

I was teaching Bayes' Rule this week, and there's an example that has to do with lie detectors and stealing. The story is that you have employees, of whom 10% are stealing. You also have a lie detector that is 80% effective (i.e. P(positive test given stealing) is 0.8 and P(positive test given not stealing) is 0.2, etc.). So, if you apply Bayes' Rule, you learn that given a positive test (i.e. the lie detector says you are lying/stealing) is just 0.308!
So, what about Cheney's "One Percent Doctrine" for justifying torture? Even worse! Let's suppose that there is a 1% chance that a detainee has information about a terror attack. Now suppose that torture is 90% effective in the sense that if that detainee is conspiring with terrorists he "confesses" and gives information about it with probability 0.9, but also confesses (with whatever made-up details he can think of) with probability 0.1 if he is innocent. (This, I think, is being generous to the effectiveness of torture!) Then, GIVEN a confession, the probability that there was really a plot is just 0.009/(0.009+0.099) = 0.083 - less than 10%!
The conclusion here is that the one percent doctrine logically fails when there is even a small chance of getting false positives from your intelligence-gathering resources and methods. It seems from what you hear that torture leads to sufficiently many false positives that it probably isn't helping, and is probably HURTING our security by leading our enforcement agencies on wild goose chases! Food for thought!