Saturday, July 19, 2008

Today's "I Told You So"

I really hope Ani reads this because he doubted my hunch that a combination of factors might lead to a sharp decline in the price of oile & gas over the next few months, definitely in the next year.

Check out this NPR "All Things Considered" interview with Phil Flynn. 2:15 in he talks about the fact that oil quantities are as high as they've ever been (relative to demand) for this time of year. Partly this is because consumers are making small changes to their habits (a handful more people taking the bus/metro, a few taking bikes, and a lot of people canceling that summer car trip). The other part is that the oil market is rife with speculation. This speculation comes from certain people who think the price of oil can only go up (and are wrong) and certain other people who are buying commodities to hedge the downside risks in the stock market. He discusses this second aspect of the market 3:00 into the interview.When I heard the interview driving, I thought I heard some numbers on the surplus between supply & demand, but they don't seem to be in this take of it.

On the demand side: don't forget Clive Granger's prediction of a harsh fall for China after the olympics.

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