Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Budget Hawks?

The votes are in 0n the 2 billion dollar F22 project (which, by all honest accounts is a dated program that currently serves almost no purpose). Here's a crosstab of votes by party. Not a party-line vote, but not independent of party affiation, either. Oh, Ike, where art thou now?

Count of Vote Party

Vote D I R Grand Total
Yea 42 1 15 58
Nay 14 1 25 40
Not Voting 2

Grand Total 58 2 40 100
Chi-Squared Test for Independence: 15.207

From a Chi-Squared distribution with 4 [(r-1)*(c-1) with r = # of rows, c = # of columns) degrees of freedom, the 1% critical value is 13. 277, so since 15.2 is greater than 13.277, we can conclude in this case that there were differences. However, there may be lurking variables here, such as how much money gets sent to a district for the program. Maybe Republican states just get more financial benefit from defense-industry spending.

To control for this a bit, I looked at states where the party differed. Here's the new crosstab:
Count of Vote Party

Vote D R Grand Total
Nay 2 7 9
Yea 10 5 15
Grand Total 12 12 24
Chi-Squared Test for Independence: 4.44

Here, we have a Chi-Squared distribution with one degree of freedom (there weren't any abstainers and I counted Joe Lieberman as a Democrat instead of "independent democrat"). The critical value for a 5% level of significance (still pretty good) is 3.841, so since 4.44 is greater than that, we can say that even controlling for state, there were significantly more Republicans who voted to keep the 2 billion dollar fighter in the budget.

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